There’s an old adage: when the U.S. sneezes, the global economy catches a cold. But when it comes to the green economy, that may no longer hold true. While Trump’s return to the White House will likely bring attempts to undo Biden-era clean energy initiatives, the clean energy transition appears poised to forge ahead—driven by innovation, economic pragmatism, European regulations and market forces.
Clean Energy’s Resilience in the U.S.
“Texas is really interesting,” says Greg Jackson, founder and CEO of Octopus Energy in the UK. “A state that is the freest market, which doesn’t have an ideological lean towards renewables, has the most renewables [in the U.S.]—because they’re cheap and because they know how to get stuff done. There’s a lesson there for everyone.”
Even as Trump declares “drill, baby, drill,” renewables have been becoming the default choice for new energy projects, even in the U.S. According to reports published by BloombergNEF, in 2023, nearly 90% of new global power capacity came from clean energy sources, such as solar, offshore and onshore wind and geothermal power. In the US, in the same year, renewables accounted for more than 75% of new power capacity—a trend likely to continue even as fossil fuels may see a temporary boost from rising global energy consumption.
Three Forces Driving Global Clean Energy Resilience
1. Clean Energy’s Cost Advantage
The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects global demand for oil, coal, and natural gas will peak by 2030. Within five years, clean energy adoption is expected to fully decouple economic growth from fossil fuel consumption.
This momentum is reflected in global investment trends. In 2023, investment in solar energy ($286 billion) surpassed oil production ($200 billion) for the first time, according to Manas Chawla, CEO of London Politica.
Solar power’s plummeting costs underscore why renewables are economically irresistible for investors. According to Our World in Data, from 2009 to 2019, the cost of solar fell by 89%, while coal prices stagnated. As solar continues its exponential growth in cost competitiveness, fossil fuels will struggle to match its affordability and scalability.
This economic reality has potential to reshape energy politics in the US. Republican lawmakers, typically hostile to green policies, are allegedly quietly defending clean energy incentives, particularly those benefiting their districts in the form of lower household bills, job creation and increased manufacturing output. A Washington Post analysis found that Republican-led districts have received three times as much clean energy and manufacturing investment ($165 billion) under Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) as Democratic districts ($54 billion). In many instances, according to Adrian Siegrist, Chief Commerce Officer at Swiss-based carbon removal company, Climeworks, these states are leveraging as much as $20 in private investment for every $1 invested via public funds—a return too significant to ignore. Shilpika Gautam, Founder and CEO of Opna, a carbon project financing platform, agrees that this reliance on IRA tax credits and fundings might be “the sticking point” when it comes to efforts to repeal them.
Even if some IRA provisions are rolled back, the long-term impact may still be limited. “I think there’s going to be growth in the U.S., and I don’t think it will necessarily require a lot of incentives,” says Rikarður Rikarðsson, Executive Vice President at Iceland’s Landsvirkjun. “The Trump administration might scale back offshore wind incentives, but renewables will grow where they’re already economically viable—which includes much of the U.S.”
“The trajectory is clear,” Rikarðsson continues. “Clean energy will keep expanding, especially where it’s already economically viable. In many cases, it doesn’t require much financial support to thrive.”
2. Clean Energy Innovation and Market Disruption
The relative affordability of renewables is in large part being driven by technological innovation. Octopus Energy’s transformation of the UK energy market—powered by its Kraken platform—demonstrates how technology can make renewables scalable and efficient for the average household. This scalability challenges the volatile supply-and-demand dynamics that traditional fossil fuels struggle to overcome. Octopus Energy’s Greg Jackson warns that industry incumbents who fail to adapt to this reality risk being displaced, much like traditional Western automakers were disrupted by Elon Musk’s Tesla.
On the subject of Tesla, despite recent stagnation in its EV sales, the company’s energy division—centered largely around solar energy and battery storage—has experienced significant growth, expanding by 6% from 2023 to 2024. This could explain why Musk remains unfazed by the possibility of clean energy subsidies being removed, at least if we take the less cynical view of his motivations.
There’s perhaps some merit to this view, according to Greg Jackson. Much of the IRA’s incentives could be seen as helping incumbents adapt to the clean energy era. However, Jackson argues that governments, especially interventionist ones, are often more inclined to prop up incumbents “lazy” business model than to foster genuine innovation that changes the game. “Sometimes I think we’re still expecting fossil fuel companies to build our renewables,” he says. “Just like traditional car companies in the U.S. weren’t driving the transition to EVs, it’s similar to how Microsoft ultimately got out the smartphone market when it realized it could not build them.”
For its part, Octopus’s customer-centric approach is a living example of innovation, having emerged as the UK’s largest energy provider by customer numbers—displacing traditional giants like British Gas—in less than a decade. And, as Jackson points out, this was achieved without reliance on generous policy support. “We’ve been system takers,” Jackson asserts, “and we’ve made it possible to win—not because of a carbon tax, or because of subsidies, both of which we may never get, but just by working harder than anybody else to be cheaper.” The fact such innovation is possible points to the underlying market fundamentals favoring renewables.
3. Enhanced European Regulation to Boost Clean Energy
Finally, Europe’s stringent regulations, like the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), are further pressuring multinational companies to decarbonize and to prioritize clean energy sources in their supply chains.
Rachel Delacour, CEO of carbon management platform Sweep, notes that these regulations are setting benchmarks that ripple across global markets. “U.S. companies operating in Europe will need to adapt or risk falling behind,” she warns.
Climeworks’ Siegrist, highlights the resulting demand for decarbonization technologies and services across sectors. “Fortune 500 companies, particularly in tech and finance, have historically led the way in emissions reduction. Now, healthcare and consumer goods are following suit.”
The Clean Energy Opportunity in the Global South
In Africa, the clean energy transition represents both a challenge and an opportunity. Meeting it will admittedly require additional incentives and support to complement the forces driving clean energy adoption in developed countries. While the continent holds 60% of the world’s best solar resources, it accounts for just 1% of global solar capacity. New de-risking measures by the World Bank and development finance institutions have potential to help attract private capital to close this gap.
“This is one form of political risk mitigation the West can offer,” says Landsvirkjun’s Rikarðsson. “Blended finance solutions, where development banks absorb initial risks, are critical for driving private investment in regions with high potential but limited infrastructure.”
Fresh from raising a historic $100 billion, World Bank President Ajay Banga has made energy access a priority, aiming to provide electricity to 300 million Africans by 2030. Complementary efforts from a new campaign to Scale Up Renewables in Africa, led by South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, as part of the former’s G20 presidency, are mobilizing investments to quadruple global renewable energy capacity across the continent by the end of the decade.* This initiative has the potential to make up for any shortfall in US government support.
Mike Silvestrini, CEO of Energea, a renewable energy investment platform operating in Africa is bullish about the industry’s African prospects. Having already built renewable energy assets across South Africa, Botswana, and Sierra Leone, he predicts, “Who occupies the White House won’t affect renewable deployment—solar, wind, or hydropower—in Africa.”
The Path Ahead for Clean Energy
Even with potential policy setbacks under a Trump presidency, the clean energy transition shows no signs of slowing. Market forces, global regulations, and technological innovation are creating unstoppable momentum.
The debate is no longer about whether the world will transition to clean energy, but how quickly and equitably it can be achieved worldwide. Fortunately, new initiatives and leadership are stepping up to meet this challenge, the outcome of which will define the decades ahead—and, with it, the fate of our planet.
This article was originally published on Forbes.